INTELLIGENT MOBILE TECHNOLOGY

Referencing the Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker , IDC said due to the lower than expected third quarter and the continued component shortages and logistical challenges , which may not improve until mid-2022 , the company has lowered its growth forecast for 2021 and 2022 from 7.4 % and 3.4 % to 5.3 % and 3.0 % respectively .

Looking at 2023 and beyond , IDC expects a modest but healthy 3.5 % five-year compound annual growth rate ( CAGR ) fuelled by pent-up demand , declining average sale prices ( ASPs ), and continued transition from feature phones to smartphones .

“ Although we expected a slowdown in the third quarter , the market declined by almost twice the projected rate as the supply chain and logistical challenges hit every major player in the market . Moreover , the shortage is more heavily concentrated on 4G components than 5G , which will impact vendors with a higher portfolio mix of 4G devices than vendors with a higher proportion of 5G models . These challenges surrounding 4G components have shifted our short-term forecast for Android more than iOS , which is now primarily 5G ,” said Nabila Popal , Research Director , Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers , IDC . “ On the positive side , this is expected to accelerate the jump to 5G , which is now forecast to be almost 60 % of worldwide shipments by this time next year , slowing the decline in smartphone ASPs over the forecast period .”

All regions are forecast to see a single-digit decline with the most significant decreases expected in Asia / Pacific ( excluding Japan and China ) ( APeJC ) and China where shipments will be down 9.1 % and 8.4 % year over year respectively . However , due to the robust growth in the first half of 2021 , all regions except China finished 2021 on a positive note . “ As with our previous forecast , 2021 represented peak average selling prices as Android will end the year at US $ 265 while iOS climbs to a staggering US $ 950 ,” said Anthony Scarsella , Research Director , Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers , IDC . “ The continued demand for premium models in developed markets has 2021 ASPs growing 11.4 % to US $ 382 , up from US $ 343 one year ago . In addition , the record-breaking US $ 950 ASP for iOS in 2021 has Apple controlling nearly 43 % of all smartphone revenues despite only a 17.1 % market share . However , moving forward , prices in the overall market will slowly fall as 5G devices will decline 14.5 % in 2022 while 4G devices drop more than 18 % this year as the market continues to shift towards 5G .” •

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